Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Fahrenheit temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 17 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily high for KLGA. Today’s crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any outcome, yet the Polymarket frontrunner assigns 52% likelihood to 86–87°F, followed by 88–89°F at 30% [1]. This divergence suggests the 0% figure reflects a technical or liquidity anomaly rather than a genuine forecast, as historical July highs at LaGuardia routinely exceed 85°F, making a null outcome implausible for a power-user evaluating the tooling.

Programmatic traders should script a parser to pull KLGA’s daily high from Wunderground’s history endpoint, then cross-check against NWS historical archives for KLGA to validate outliers [2]. Key catalysts include the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast updates and any heat advisories issued by NOAA’s New York office, which often precede temperature spikes. A recent NWS bulletin highlighted a developing heat dome over the Northeast, raising the probability of sustained highs above 85°F in mid-July, a pattern that aligns with the market’s frontrunner range [1]. Traders running conditional orders should monitor the 12:00 UTC settlement cutoff and ensure their bot accounts for timezone conversions between UTC and local LaGuardia time.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.