Highest temperature in NYC on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Fahrenheit reading at LaGuardia Airport on 14 July 2026, a specific meteorological event that determines settlement. With the crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome sitting at 0%, the algorithmic consensus currently suggests the temperature will fall outside the defined winning range, likely indicating a forecast for significantly cooler conditions or a range mismatch in the underlying model.

Historical July data for LaGuardia typically sees peaks between 85°F and 95°F, though the July 2026 heatwave shattered long-standing records across the East Coast, with NYC, DC, and Atlantic City breaking temperatures that had stood for up to 154 years[4]. A programmatically minded trader would note that while the frontrunner on Polymarket is 96–97°F at 54%, the 0% YES probability here implies a distinct divergence in range definition or a specific threshold that the current heatwave data does not satisfy[2].

Traders should monitor real-time feeds from the National Weather Service for KLGA and Wunderground’s daily history, as these are the definitive resolution sources[1][3]. The primary catalyst is the official daily high release, which usually occurs shortly after midnight UTC, but the recent record-breaking corridor suggests volatility in expected ranges[4]. A script would query the Wunderground API at settlement to verify the exact degree, comparing it against the 96–97°F frontrunner to identify if the 0% probability reflects a data lag or a genuine expectation of a sub-94°F peak.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.