Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring a persistent heatwave, with LaGuardia Airport recently recording 94°F around midnight on 4 July, its highest midnight temperature ever. This extreme thermal retention sets a critical baseline for evaluating the 12 July settlement, where the crowd-implied probability of a specific outcome sits at 0%. Historically, mid-July highs in NYC frequently breach 90°F, with LaGuardia hitting 107°F on 3 July 1966 during a comparable severe event [9]. The current 0% probability suggests the market expects a specific temperature range to be impossible, yet the ongoing heatwave and record-breaking midnight lows indicate that extreme daytime highs remain a tangible risk rather than a statistical anomaly [1][3].

Programmatic traders approaching this market should monitor the National Weather Service climatological reports issued daily for KLGA, which provide the official sunrise and sunset windows necessary for calculating diurnal heating potential [8]. The primary catalyst is the continuation of the East Coast heatwave, which has already pushed daily highs to 102°F earlier in the week [3]. Automated strategies must integrate real-time Wunderground data feeds, as the market resolves strictly on the highest temperature recorded for all times on 12 July at this specific station [5]. Traders should also watch for any sudden shifts in the AccuWeather July 2026 forecast, which currently projects daily highs between 73°F and 91°F, though recent actuals have significantly exceeded these modelled averages [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.