Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key variable is the highest temperature observed at LaGuardia Airport, not the citywide feel or Central Park reading, so the practical task is to map a late-summer hourly forecast to the exact Wunderground outcome bands. The market’s 0% crowd-implied YES is unusual for a weather event, but it is not a signal of impossibility; it more likely reflects thin participation, a stale book, or uncertainty over how traders are anchoring to the resolution source rather than the broader NYC weather narrative.[3][6]

For context, New York City’s August average high is around 83°F, and recent market pricing and forecast pages cluster around the low-to-mid 80s rather than extreme heat.[18][2][11] That places the likely resolution in the central bands unless a short-lived afternoon surge pushes the airport reading into the mid-80s. A programmatic approach would normally ingest the latest hourly forecast for KNYC/KLGA, translate model highs into the market’s discrete buckets, and update position sizing as the implied distribution shifts against the settlement window.[3][6]

The main catalysts are the afternoon temperature peak, cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, and any last-minute forecast adjustment from the National Weather Service or private forecasters, because small changes near the day’s maximum can move the result between adjacent brackets.[17][1] Recent coverage of the July heat wave showed that New York can overshoot broad expectations quickly when a heat dome builds, with city temperatures reaching 100°F and heavier urban areas running hotter than shaded reference sites.[8][9] For a trader using bots or conditional orders, the useful trigger is not headline heat alone, but whether intraday updates point LaGuardia towards 82–83°F, 84–85°F, or a rare push higher.[6][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.