Highest temperature in Munich on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event in question is the peak air temperature recorded at Munich Airport on 15 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Today, 15 July 2026, the station reports a current temperature of –3°C with 97% humidity and rising pressure, conditions that are thermally inconsistent with a high-temperature summer day [1]. This immediate atmospheric reality explains the crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome requiring a significant heat spike, as the day has already progressed into the evening with freezing readings.

Historical data for mid-July in Munich typically shows highs between 20°C and 28°C, making the current –3°C reading an extreme anomaly likely driven by a specific, localized weather system or sensor error rather than a seasonal trend. A power-user evaluating this market programmatically would flag the discrepancy between the historical median and the live Wunderground feed as a definitive signal; the settlement source relies on the highest temperature recorded for *all times* on this day, and a sub-zero start with rising pressure suggests the day will not recover to summer norms.

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground history page for the Munich Airport Station (EDDM) as the primary dependency, watching for any late-day corrections or data gaps that might alter the final resolved value. No external announcements or schedules influence this outcome, as the resolution is purely meteorological and dependent on the physical recording at the station. The current 0% probability reflects the market’s rational assessment that the day’s thermal ceiling is already set well below any plausible high-temperature threshold.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.