Highest temperature in Munich on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport’s maximum temperature on 6 August is the number that matters here, not the citywide forecast headline, and the market only resolves once the day’s final high is fixed in the Wunderground history page for EDDM. For a programme-driven trader, the clean approach is to watch the station feed, poll the historical page at intervals through the local afternoon, and only treat the market as settled once the observed high can no longer be exceeded before the cutoff.

The 0% implied probability sits against a fairly warm August baseline rather than an extreme one. Munich’s August average high is about 24.7°C, while the historical daily high for 6 August is around 25.4°C, and August records in the city have reached 37.0°C, so double-digit Celsius outcomes are routine and heat spikes are possible in the right synoptic set-up.[1] Comparable August readings also show a clear upper tail: one climate source puts Munich’s typical August high near 24°C, with record highs around 38°C in the broader archive.[3][14]

Traders should track any forecast shift tied to continental high pressure, foehn conditions south of the Alps, or convective cloud that can cap the afternoon maximum, because those are the main dependencies that move a station high in Bavaria. In practice, an automated workflow would compare updated model runs with the live airport observations and flag whether the expected peak is likely to stay within one resolution band or spill into the next; the key operational risk is that the market may remain open while the daily high is still evolving, so late-afternoon warmth can matter more than the morning setup.[2][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.