Highest temperature in Munich on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport's meteorological station will record hourly temperature observations throughout 11 August 2026, with the highest reading determining settlement. The market resolves to whichever temperature band captures that peak, sourced directly from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—a distinction that matters when intraday spikes occur between official high/low reporting windows. For programmatic traders, this specificity demands API access to granular hourly data rather than reliance on end-of-day summaries; misalignment between the two sources has historically created settlement disputes on similar weather markets.

August temperatures in Munich typically peak between 23–28°C, though heat waves occasionally push readings above 30°C. Historical August records show the city reached 37.3°C in 2015 and 36.7°C in 2022, establishing that extreme outliers, whilst rare, fall within plausible ranges. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either pricing near-zero likelihood of extreme heat or have not yet engaged with the market's technical resolution criteria—a common pattern when weather markets specify non-standard data sources.

Traders should monitor European summer weather forecasting from mid-July onwards, particularly atmospheric pressure systems and jet stream positioning that drive continental heat events. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) publishes extended forecasts six weeks ahead; significant revisions in late July would signal shifting catalyst probabilities. Conditional order logic could automate position adjustments tied to official heat warnings issued by local authorities, which typically precede temperature extremes by 48–72 hours.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.