Highest temperature in Miami on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Miami’s reading on 6 August will be the highest Fahrenheit temperature logged at Miami International Airport in Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table, not the headline high/low box. For a trader building this into a script, the cleanest workflow is to poll the KMIA daily page, parse the observation rows, and map the day’s maximum into the market’s resolution bands; that matters because a one-degree difference can move the outcome into a different bracket even when the summary page looks unchanged.[2][6]

The crowd’s 0% YES implies the market is pricing the event as effectively impossible, but Miami in August is normally hot enough that an out-of-range result would need an unusual cool day rather than a routine summer profile. AccuWeather’s August page shows recent highs around 87–89°F, while the historical average for Miami in late August is about 90°F, and climate records indicate that 2026 has already produced a 97°F day earlier in July, so the tail is wide enough that a midday surge above the low-90s cannot be dismissed on climatology alone.[1][4][5]

The practical catalysts are the same ones a bot would monitor: forecast updates for Miami, convective rain or sea-breeze timing, and any tropical disturbance that alters cloud cover or suppresses the afternoon peak. Forecast products for the Miami area show August days with patchy rain and highs in the low 90s, and hurricane season runs through November, with August inside the statistically active period, so changes in precipitation coverage or storm proximity are the main inputs to watch before the observation window closes.[7][10][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.