Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with settlement finalising by 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026. Historical data shows that July is part of Manila’s wet season, typically bringing heavy rainfall and high humidity, which suppresses peak temperatures. Long-term averages indicate daytime highs around 31°C, with overnight lows near 24°C, and July often sees the heaviest rainfall of the year[1][2]. Recent records from late June 2026 show a peak of 37.1°C (98.6°F) on 17 June, but such extremes are uncommon during the wet months[8]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a “YES” outcome suggests traders believe the temperature will not exceed the threshold defined in the market, likely due to the cooling effect of frequent showers and cloud cover typical of this period[1][2].

Traders approaching this market programmatically should monitor real-time weather feeds from Wunderground and PAGASA for hourly temperature updates, as well as rainfall intensity and cloud cover data, which directly influence peak temperatures. Key catalysts include PAGASA’s daily heat index forecasts, which recently indicated heat indices could reach up to 46°C, though this reflects perceived discomfort rather than actual air temperature[7]. Additionally, PAGASA’s top 10 highest temperature list as of 30 June 2026 shows regional peaks of 34.0°C in Laoag and Catbalogan, but Manila’s wet-season conditions typically keep temperatures lower[6]. A trader might build a conditional order bot that triggers when Wunderground reports a sustained rise above 33°C with minimal rainfall, or when PAGASA’s heat index forecast drops below 40°C, indicating reduced atmospheric pressure and potential for higher temperatures. Recent PAGASA updates and weather2travel.com’s July averages provide the most reliable baseline for setting these thresholds[1][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.