Highest temperature in Manila on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila's highest temperature on 17 August 2026 will be measured at Ninoy Aquino International Airport and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement mechanism prioritises this granular dataset over the summary high-low figures, meaning traders need to verify data directly from the source table rather than relying on headline figures or third-party weather apps that may aggregate differently.

Historical August temperatures at Manila's airport cluster tightly. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs on mid-August dates ranged from 32.2°C to 35.1°C, with most years falling between 33–34°C during the southwest monsoon season. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be calibrated to a threshold above typical August patterns—likely 36°C or higher. Comparable monsoon-season days show that extreme heat requires either unusual atmospheric conditions or measurement timing anomalies; most August 17th observations historically settle in the 33–35°C bands.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) forecasts from mid-August, which typically issue 5-day outlooks by 14 August. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in 2026 will influence monsoon intensity; current climate indices should be cross-referenced against historical ENSO patterns. Programmatically, set conditional orders keyed to PAGASA heat advisories or tropical cyclone warnings, as these directly affect airport-station readings. Verify the exact Weather Underground station code (RPLL or equivalent) and confirm Daily Observations table access before settlement, as data availability can vary by region.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Manila on August 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.