Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event concerns the peak temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport on 9 July 2026, a date squarely within the region’s typical summer heat window. Historical data and forecast models indicate July highs in Los Angeles routinely reach 79°F to 90°F, with an average of 85°F, making a sub-70°F outcome statistically implausible under normal conditions[3]. Recent market activity on similar dates, such as 7 July 2026, saw the frontrunner outcome settle at 74–75°F with 100% implied probability, reinforcing that temperatures in this range are the expected norm rather than an outlier[2].

For a power-user approaching this programmatically, the critical catalysts are weather advisories and heatwave declarations issued by local authorities, which directly influence temperature trajectories. A recent heat advisory for parts of Los Angeles County on 7 July 2026, coupled with reports of Southern California’s latest record-shattering heatwave, signals that elevated temperatures are already in motion and likely to persist through the 9th[5]. Traders should monitor real-time updates from ABC7 News and Wunderground’s historical daily feed for KLAX, as these sources provide the definitive resolution data and early indicators of thermal spikes[7]. Any deviation from the 74–77°F range would require an extreme meteorological anomaly, which current models do not support.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.