Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles International Airport’s highest temperature on 26 July 2026 is the settleable event, with the market keyed to the day’s maximum reading in Fahrenheit from the Wunderground station record. The current crowd price of 0% YES is far below the nearby temperature buckets seen on the market itself, where the leading outcomes are centred on **80-81°F** and **74-75°F**, suggesting the market is treating a higher-end reading as materially less likely than a middling summer day.[1]

For a historical or comparative read, the cleanest way to approach this is as a range-selection problem rather than a point forecast: traders typically map the expected daily maximum at KLAX to the nearest bracket, then watch whether late-session warming or marine-layer suppression shifts the distribution. At a coastal airport like Los Angeles, July highs often hinge on low-cloud burn-off, onshore flow and whether the inland heat signal reaches the basin late enough to affect the airport reading, which is why a programmatic model would usually update from hourly forecasts rather than rely on a single midday snapshot.[2]

The practical catalysts are the forecast updates closest to the settlement window, especially any changes in marine layer depth, coastal wind, or synoptic warming in the National Weather Service and airport-facing hourly data. For a power-user running bots or conditional orders, the useful inputs are the intraday hourly forecast path, the timing of cloud dissipation, and any last-mile revision in the expected maximum before the window closes, since the settlement source is the recorded daily high at KLAX rather than a citywide average.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 26? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.