Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport on 22 July, which is measured against the Wunderground daily history page for KLAX. For a market like this, the practical workflow is to treat it as a single-source weather settlement problem: ingest the station maximum, map it into the market’s Fahrenheit bands, and reconcile the result against any late data corrections before the window closes.

The 0% implied probability on the upper outcome is consistent with the way heat at KLAX usually underperforms inland Los Angeles. Even during regional heat waves, coastal cooling and marine influence often keep the airport several degrees below the city’s hottest neighbourhoods, so a high-airport reading is less common than headlines about “Los Angeles” temperatures might suggest. In this market, the useful historical analogue is not downtown LA but the airport station itself: traders who automate historical baselines will usually key off prior KLAX maxima, then overlay day-of synoptic conditions rather than broad regional forecasts.

On the catalyst side, the main inputs are the National Weather Service forecast updates, local heat advisories, and any change in onshore flow, cloud cover, or wind direction that could suppress the midday maximum. CBS Los Angeles reported a long-duration Southern California heat wave with temperatures crossing the mid-90s in Los Angeles, while NBC Los Angeles noted heat-advisory conditions and cooling guidance for the region, which is the sort of setup that can move an automated model’s band probabilities quickly if the airport remains exposed through the afternoon.[3][4] A programmatic trader would watch forecast refreshes, compare them to KLAX-specific observations, and avoid over-weighting citywide headlines when the resolution source is a single station.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 22? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.