Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event in question is the peak heat recorded at Los Angeles International Airport on 12 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any specific high-temperature range, suggesting the market has not yet priced in a definitive outcome or the resolution criteria remain ambiguous to traders. Historical data for mid-July at KLAX shows daily highs typically cluster around 73°F, rarely exceeding 79°F, with the marine layer often capping temperatures [1]. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast for the airport projects highs between 72°F and 82°F, indicating that extreme heat above 85°F is statistically unlikely but not impossible [2].

Programmatic traders should monitor the National Weather Service point forecast for KLAX, which currently predicts a high near 75°F with patchy fog and a persistent marine layer [10]. The key catalyst is the breakdown of this marine layer; if the fog clears early, temperatures could spike toward the upper forecast range. A recent NWS update confirms the modal bracket sits between 74–77°F, making ranges below 70°F or above 80°F the primary outliers to watch [10]. For automated strategies, the Wunderground history API for KLAX is the definitive resolution source, so scripts should poll this endpoint hourly as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 12 July [9]. Traders evaluating conditional orders must account for the lag between forecast updates and actual temperature readings, as the marine layer can shift rapidly overnight.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.