Highest temperature in London on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daily temperature recorded at London City Airport on 5 July 2026, a metric that will determine the market resolution via Wunderground data. Historically, July is London’s hottest month, with average highs around 22°C, though extreme heatwaves have pushed temperatures significantly higher. For instance, during the July 2022 heatwave, London recorded its first 40°C day, reaching 40.2°C at Heathrow and St James’s Park[7]. Conversely, typical mid-July days in London range between 18–32°C, with an average of 21°C[9]. The current 0% YES probability suggests the market expects temperatures to stay within a lower range, likely below the threshold for a “high” outcome, aligning with recent forecasts showing daily highs between 21–29°C for July 2026[2][4].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates and forecast revisions, particularly for sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns that could influence peak temperatures. The Met Office currently forecasts a maximum of 29°C for today, with dry, settled conditions and breezy coastal winds[4]. Any unexpected development of severe thunderstorms or rapid pressure drops could alter the temperature trajectory, as noted in recent National Weather Service observations mentioning clusters of severe thunderstorms and record-breaking temperature clusters[5]. Additionally, the AccuWeather forecast for July 2026 indicates daily highs ranging from 21–29°C, reinforcing the expectation of moderate heat rather than extremes[6]. Programmatic approaches to this market would involve scraping Wunderground’s hourly data for EGLC, applying conditional orders based on temperature thresholds, and using copy-trading bots to mirror successful strategies from similar weather-based prediction markets.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.