Highest temperature in London on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will determine the outcome of a weather prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability of a specific high-temperature threshold sitting at just 6% YES. This low probability reflects the narrow window for extreme heat on this date, given that July is London’s hottest month with an average high of 22°C (72°F) [1]. Historical data shows London’s record high is 40.2°C, observed on 19 July 2022, but typical mid-July highs at EGLC cluster around 26–28°C, with the market’s frontrunner outcome currently set at 27°C at 52% probability [2][5].

Traders evaluating this market programmatically should monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for EGLC, as settlement depends exclusively on the highest temperature published there for 13 July [2]. The Met Office forecast for today indicates a maximum of 24°C, while BBC Weather and The Weather Network both project a high near 27°C, suggesting the 6% YES threshold likely targets an outlier above 30°C [4][6][7]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but the key dependency is the 12:00 UTC settlement cutoff and the first data point publication on Wunderground, which must occur before resolution [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.