Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Kuala Lumpur International Airport will fall within a specific range measured in degrees Celsius. The resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary—a distinction that matters when automated systems parse weather data. For programmatic traders, this means validating against the raw observation feed, not the processed daily aggregate, to avoid settlement disputes.

Kuala Lumpur's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical records show daily highs cluster between 32–34°C, with extreme readings rarely exceeding 35°C even during the hottest periods. The city sits near the equator in a tropical maritime zone where sea breezes and afternoon convection limit temperature spikes. Comparable August days from 2015–2024 show the 33–34°C range accounts for roughly 70% of observations, making extreme outliers statistically sparse. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either pricing in a specific threshold well above historical norms or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish baseline odds.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole patterns in early August 2026, as these drive regional weather anomalies across Southeast Asia. Any unusual heat dome or delayed monsoon transition could shift outcomes. Setting conditional orders tied to Weather Underground's API updates—rather than manual checks—reduces execution risk given the settlement window closes at noon UTC on the resolution date. The Daily Observations table updates hourly, so real-time data feeds become essential for capturing the final recorded maximum before the cutoff.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.