Highest temperature in Houston on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s peak temperature is usually set by the afternoon heating curve, with the high at William P. Hobby Airport often landing in the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit in late July. For a market settled on the single hottest reading of the day, the practical question is whether the station prints a modest mid-90s maximum or gets capped by cloud cover, showers, or an onshore breeze. The current crowd-implied 0% for YES is not a hard signal on the weather itself; it mainly reflects how deeply out-of-the-money the contract is relative to the exact banding being traded.

Comparable July Houston days tend to cluster around the low 90s rather than extreme heat, which matters because this market resolves to a precise daily maximum at Hobby Airport, not broader citywide conditions. The live Houston forecast shows a high around 91°F tomorrow, while the hourly view points to a warmest period near 3 pm at about 93°F, with rain risk later in the day and winds increasing into the afternoon.[2][3] That profile would typically support a mid-band outcome unless convection develops early enough to suppress the day’s maximum or, conversely, drier air allows a brief overshoot.

A programmatic trader would monitor the station-specific daily history page and treat the cutoff as the relevant settlement gate, then update conditional orders as intraday forecast ensembles shift. The key catalysts are the afternoon timing of peak heating, the chance of showers, and any change in wind direction or cloud cover that alters how quickly Hobby Airport reaches its maximum. Local weather coverage is already flagging humid, warm conditions with possible afternoon showers and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, while current observations in Houston show temperatures already in the 90s with high apparent heat, which is useful context even though the market settles on observed maximum air temperature, not feels-like readings.[4][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.