Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 27 June 2026, Hong Kong will record its daily maximum temperature, a real-world event that determines the outcome of a prediction market resolving to the Celsius range containing the highest reading. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes this figure as the "Absolute Daily Max" in its finalised Daily Extract, and the market cannot settle until this data is officially released. With crowd-implied probability at 0% for the current range, the focus shifts to whether historical patterns or emerging weather catalysts justify a re-evaluation of the odds.

Historically, June in Hong Kong sees average highs between 28°C and 32°C, with July and August typically hotter, averaging around 32°C[2]. In June 2026, forecasted daily highs range from 28°C to 32°C, aligning with the long-term average[2]. The 0% probability suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the current range, yet comparable years show June temperatures consistently within this band. A power-user evaluating this tooling would programmatically query the Observatory’s climate archive for June 2026 daily extracts, cross-referencing with real-time forecasts to identify discrepancies that might signal a mispriced range.

Traders should monitor the Observatory’s 9-day forecast updates, which currently indicate mainly cloudy conditions with showers and thunderstorms, and a temperature range of 27–31°C[7]. The key dependency is the finalisation of the Daily Extract for 27 June, which may be delayed by ongoing weather activity. Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory, updated for 13–21 June 2026, confirm the trend of hot, humid weather with high typhoon risk[4]. A programmatically driven approach would automate checks on the Observatory’s climate portal for the latest Daily Extract, triggering conditional orders if the published maximum deviates significantly from the forecasted 27–31°C range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.