Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26?

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Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a "YES" outcome, suggesting the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range being traded. Historically, Hong Kong in June sees daytime maximums averaging 30°C with high heat and humidity, while the seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 predicts above-normal temperatures across the region[1][3]. This climatic backdrop frames the 0% probability as potentially premature; if the heatwave trend continues, temperatures could easily breach 33°C, a level recently flagged by the Observatory as imminent for the coming week[7].

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s "Daily Extract" for the finalized "Absolute Daily Max" value, as the market cannot resolve until this data is published[3]. Key catalysts include the official release of the June–August seasonal forecast updates and any real-time heatwave advisories issued by the Observatory, which have already indicated temperatures hitting 33°C from Tuesday to Friday[3][7]. Traders building conditional orders must account for the dependency on the Observatory’s data finalisation schedule, ensuring their bots trigger only after the "Daily Extract" is available to avoid false resolutions. Recent news confirms the Observatory is bracing for a heatwave, reinforcing the need to watch for official temperature announcements that could shift the probability away from the current 0% baseline[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.