Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak air temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 9 July 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. This single data point, once finalized in the official "Daily Extract", will determine the market resolution. A programmatically minded trader would treat this as a deterministic oracle feed, scripting a bot to poll the Observatory's climate API at the settlement window and execute conditional orders based on the parsed value.

Historical July peaks in Hong Kong typically range between 32°C and 35°C, with the average high for the month sitting at 32°C [2][6]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome suggests the market is either awaiting data finalisation or pricing in extreme uncertainty, yet seasonal forecasts for July–September 2026 indicate normal to above-normal temperatures [4]. Comparable markets, such as the lowest temperature prediction on the same date, show 94% confidence in 27°C, highlighting how the market clusters around expected climatological norms [1].

Traders must monitor the Observatory’s release schedule for the "Daily Extract" and any updates to the ENSO status, which influences regional temperature anomalies [4]. A recent forecast notes temperatures in south China could fluctuate significantly, with highs reaching 25°C and lows dropping to 13°C this weekend, underscoring the volatility in short-term weather patterns [7]. The primary catalyst is the official publication of the absolute daily maximum; until this appears in the public dataset, no resolution can occur, making the timing of the data release the critical dependency for any automated trading strategy [9][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.