Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at hand is the single highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 7 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves to the specific temperature range containing that peak reading, with data finalised only once the Observatory publishes its official "Daily Extract". The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome suggests traders are betting against the temperature hitting the specific range in question, likely viewing the threshold as unattainable given current seasonal norms.

Historical July data frames how to interpret this near-zero probability. The average high for July in Hong Kong is 89°F (31.7°C), with daily highs typically ranging from 86°F to 95°F (30°C to 35°C) [1]. The highest monthly mean maximum temperature ever recorded in July was 32.9°C in 2007, while recent years like 2023 saw July as the city’s hottest month on record with unprecedented hot nights [8]. However, even in extreme heatwaves, single-day peaks rarely exceed 35°C unless under specific typhoon or stagnant air conditions, making a 0% probability plausible if the target range sits above this historical ceiling.

A programmatic trader should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s "Past Weather" feed for the official "Absolute Daily Max" release, which is the sole resolution source [6]. Key catalysts include any sudden shifts in the monsoon trough or the approach of a tropical cyclone, which can spike temperatures beyond seasonal averages. Recent reports confirm July 2023 was the hottest month since records began in 1884, with the Observatory noting a record number of hot days [8]. Traders running bots should set alerts for the Observatory’s climatological updates, as data finalisation in the "Daily Extract" is the only dependency for settlement, and no resolution occurs until this is published [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.