Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 5 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Historical data frames the current 0% YES probability as a market mispricing, since July is Hong Kong’s warmest month, with daily highs averaging 33°C (91°F) and the warmest period running from late May to mid-September[5]. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast shows daily highs between 87°F and 95°F (30.6°C to 35°C), while the Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook expects normal to above-normal temperatures for July–September 2026[3][4]. Polymarket data confirms the market frontrunner is 33°C at 54%, with 32°C at 46%, indicating strong consensus that temperatures will exceed 30°C[1].

A programmatic trader should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Daily Extract” for the finalized “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” value, as resolution cannot occur until this data is published[1]. Key catalysts include real-time weather updates, typhoon warnings, and sudden shifts in humidity or wind patterns that could suppress peak temperatures. Recent forecasts for early July indicate overnight lows near 27°C under typical humidity and light winds, suggesting stable summer conditions[2]. Traders should also track ENSO status and climate model outputs, as these influence the probability of above-normal temperatures[4]. The settlement window ends 2026-07-05T12:00:00Z, so automated bots must fetch the final data point before this deadline to execute conditional orders accurately.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.