Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak Celsius temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 11 July 2026, resolved via the official “Absolute Daily Max” in the Daily Extract. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% YES, the market currently assumes the temperature will fall outside the specified range, likely reflecting a mismatch between the range definition and historical extremes for mid-July.

Historically, July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, with the 2022 record of 30.3°C average monthly temperature breaking 11 prior records and setting a new benchmark since 1884[1][2]. Daily highs in recent July periods have frequently reached 32–34°C, while forecasts for July 2026 suggest daily highs between 29°C and 34°C (85–94°F)[3]. A 0% probability implies the market expects the peak to be either significantly lower than the range or that the range itself is misaligned with the Observatory’s typical mid-July maxima, which often exceed 33°C on clear days.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract release schedule, as the market cannot resolve until the finalized data for 11 July appears[8]. Key catalysts include any sudden shifts in cloud cover, rainfall, or the approach of a tropical disturbance, which could suppress peak temperatures. Recent reporting confirms July 2026 is tracking as exceptionally hot, reinforcing the need to watch for real-time updates from the Observatory rather than relying solely on forecast models[1]. Programmatic approaches should automate checks on the Observatory’s climate data endpoint to trigger conditional orders once the Daily Extract is published.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.