Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the single highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This specific data point will determine which temperature range the market resolves to, with the official figure published only after the relevant "Daily Extract" is finalized.

Historical context frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability as a potential misreading of Hong Kong’s extreme summer volatility. July is consistently the city’s hottest month, with 2023 marking the hottest July on record since 1884, featuring the highest number of hot days and nights in a single month[1]. While a rain event in July 2022 saw temperatures dip to 25.4°C on 1 July, the average high for July typically sits near 32°C (90°F), with recent forecasts for July 2026 suggesting daily highs between 29°C and 34°C[2][5]. A programmatically evaluating trader would script a bot to monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s climatological archive, pulling the "Absolute Daily Max" from the 2026 Daily Extract once available, rather than relying on static weather models that may underestimate peak heat spikes.

Traders must watch for immediate catalysts including the release of the official Daily Extract and any sudden shifts in local weather patterns, such as tropical cyclones or heavy rain systems that could suppress temperatures. The settlement window ends on 1 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, meaning the market cannot resolve until the data is officially published[9]. Recent news confirms that July remains the city’s hottest month on record, reinforcing the likelihood of extreme temperatures unless a specific weather anomaly intervenes[1]. A conditional order strategy would involve setting alerts on the Observatory’s website for the 2026 Daily Extract, ensuring the bot executes trades only when the finalized data confirms the peak temperature threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.