Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature on 9 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max” reading, published later in the Daily Extract once the day’s data are finalised. For a programmatic workflow, that means the market cannot be treated as resolvable from live headline forecasts alone: the clean trigger is the Observatory’s archived daily record, ideally polled after the settlement window and only once the extract for 9 August 2026 appears.

The current 0% crowd-implied price sits against a very hot recent baseline. The Observatory reported 35.8°C as the city’s highest temperature of the year earlier in August, while local coverage noted some districts reaching 37°C and the Observatory itself running below that at 34.7°C on 8 August. That matters for range-based markets because the settlement outcome depends on the single official max, not the broader territory-wide heat, so traders who script against station-level feeds need to anchor on the Hong Kong Observatory’s own figure rather than regional readings. [2][6][11]

For catalysts, the main inputs are the Observatory’s morning and midday forecast updates, any heat or warning statements, and whether a hot, humid air mass persists through the afternoon. Recent reporting said high temperatures were expected to continue until midweek, which supports elevated intraday ceilings even if cloud cover or showers cap the final max. In a trading stack, the practical approach is to watch the Observatory’s forecast page, the 9-day outlook, and the eventual Daily Extract publication time, then let conditional orders or bots react only when the official daily maximum is posted. [10][16][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.