Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's maximum daily temperature on 12 August 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract dataset, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though the official reading may not be finalised until the following day's data release. For automated resolution workflows, the relevant metric is the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" field from the Observatory's climate database, accessible via their public CIS portal.

August is Hong Kong's hottest month climatologically, with daily maxima typically ranging between 31–33°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. Historical precedent shows that extreme heat events (34°C+) occur roughly once per decade in early August, whilst temperatures below 30°C are rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect a specific temperature threshold to be excluded; understanding which range is being priced out requires checking the market's resolution brackets against recent August patterns from the Observatory's archives.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and real-time weather bulletins in late July and early August. Tropical cyclone activity, monsoon patterns, and upper-atmosphere pressure systems drive August variability; the Observatory publishes extended outlooks roughly two weeks ahead. For programmatic approaches, integrating the Observatory's API or scraping their daily updates allows conditional orders to trigger based on forecast confidence thresholds, whilst historical volatility in August temperature ranges justifies monitoring both the official forecast and satellite-derived temperature anomalies from regional meteorological services.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.