Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature on 1 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s **Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)** for that date, published later in the daily extract rather than from an intraday forecast feed.[16] For a programmatic approach, the cleanest workflow is to poll the Observatory’s climatology page, read the final daily extract once it appears, and map the one-decimal Celsius value into the market’s settlement band; until that file is posted, the market cannot resolve.[16]

The crowd’s **0% YES** is best read as a data-availability and timing signal rather than a view on the weather itself. August in Hong Kong is normally hot, with the Observatory’s 1991–2020 normal for 1 August showing a mean maximum of **31.6°C** and the broader month often producing daily highs in the low-30s, while recent Augusts have delivered isolated peaks well above that baseline, including **35.4°C** on 5 August 2024 and **34.4°C** on 10 August 2025.[1][7][14] Comparable cases suggest that the final number can land in adjacent temperature bands even when headline weather looks broadly similar, so copy-trading or conditional orders should be keyed to the verified published maximum rather than to forecast apps or midday snapshots.[7][14]

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s finalised daily extract, any late publication lag, and whether the day closes under a persistent anticyclone, which is the setup associated with Hong Kong’s hottest August spells.[7] Traders watching tooling or automation should also note that the settlement window ends at **2026-08-01T12:00:00Z**, so the relevant operational question is not just the temperature itself but when the Observatory posts the finalised record relative to the market’s cut-off.[16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.