Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak heat recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 6 July 2026, a date falling squarely within the city’s most torrid summer window. Historical data confirms July is Guangzhou’s hottest month, with daytime highs routinely climbing between 32°C and 37°C, occasionally breaching 38°C. Daytime temperatures in this period typically stay above 32–35°C, with extremes reaching over 37°C, while humidity often exceeds 80%, intensifying the perceived heat[2]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific lower range suggests the market expects temperatures to firmly exceed cooler thresholds, aligning with the region’s subtropical monsoon climate where summer heat persists from May through September[1].

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically would monitor typhoon forecasts and rainfall schedules, as rain from July to September is frequently influenced by typhoon arrivals, potentially moderating peak temperatures[1]. Recent reporting highlights Guangzhou experiencing its longest summer since 1961, indicating a trend toward prolonged, record-breaking heat that could push temperatures beyond historical averages[8]. Traders should watch for official weather bureau announcements regarding extreme heat warnings and typhoon paths, as these dependencies directly impact the resolution source from Wunderground. The combination of high sunshine hours in July—averaging around seven daily—and low latitude ensures consistent thermal intensity, making lower temperature ranges statistically improbable[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.