Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 25 July 2026, with the settlement hinging on the single highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport's weather station during that calendar day. The market resolves based on historical data pulled from Weather Underground, requiring traders to evaluate seasonal patterns and any anomalous weather systems that might suppress or elevate typical July conditions.

Guangzhou's July temperatures have historically clustered between 32–35°C, with extreme readings occasionally reaching 37–38°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Reviewing five-year July records from Baiyun station provides the baseline: most years see daily highs in the 33–35°C range, with outlier events tied to tropical systems or blocking high-pressure patterns. Traders building conditional orders or automated monitoring systems should anchor to this distribution rather than assuming uniform likelihood across all temperature brackets.

Catalysts affecting 25 July conditions include the trajectory of any tropical cyclones in the South China Sea during late July—the China Meteorological Administration publishes typhoon forecasts 10–14 days ahead—and upper-level atmospheric patterns that influence heat dome positioning. Monsoonal moisture and timing of any frontal systems will determine whether conditions remain typical or shift toward extremes. Programmatic approaches should integrate real-time model consensus from multiple sources (GFS, ECMWF) rather than relying on single-run forecasts, given the inherent uncertainty at a 12-month lead time and the narrow temperature bands that typically separate resolution categories.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.