Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 1 July 2026, a date historically prone to extreme heat in southern China. A power-user approaching this programmatically would query Wunderground’s historical API for the station ZGGG, filtering for the daily maximum across all timestamps, then map that value against the market’s resolution ranges to assess conditional order triggers.

Historical data frames the current 0% YES probability as statistically fragile rather than definitive. July in Guangzhou typically sees daily highs near 33°C (91°F), rarely dipping below 29°C (85°F) or exceeding 36°C (96°F), with the highest average peak occurring on 25 July[1]. Crucially, the absolute record for Guangzhou is 39.1°C, recorded precisely on 1 July 2004, suggesting this date carries outlier potential[3]. Recent national trends reinforce this volatility, as China experienced its hottest July on record in 2024, with average temperatures surpassing all data since 1961[2][6].

Traders must monitor meteorological forecasts for the Pearl River Delta, particularly any announcements of tropical depressions or sustained high-pressure systems that could suppress or amplify temperatures. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, meaning the final Wunderground reading will be locked by then. While no specific weather announcement has been issued for 1 July 2026 yet, the pattern of record-breaking heat in recent years—such as the 2024 anomaly cited by Reuters[6]—indicates that dismissing the YES outcome entirely ignores the region’s demonstrated capacity for extreme thermal events on this exact calendar date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.