Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport’s reading on 5 August is typically driven by a hot, humid subtropical summer pattern rather than by a single dramatic heat event. For this contract, the key number is the day’s *maximum observed temperature* at the airport station, so programmatic traders usually key off the afternoon peak in the Wunderground history feed and ignore forecast narration once the day is under way.

The current 0% YES implies the crowd is not pricing in any listed outcome as yet, but the surrounding climatology points to a materially warm distribution. August normals for Guangzhou are around 28–29°C, with daily highs commonly near 33°C and some forecasts touching 34°C or 35°C, while rain and cloud can suppress the top end on any given day.[1][4][6][13][14] That means a model built from local hourly forecasts and recent station conditions would usually concentrate probability on the mid-30s Celsius band, not the low 20s. Live conditions already matter: AccuWeather’s hourly view shows hot afternoon temperatures and high humidity, while Wunderground’s historical resolution source will ultimately decide the outcome once the day’s final datapoints are published.[10][11]

For traders using tooling, the practical catalysts are the evolving hourly temperature curve, convective rain chances, and any late-day thunderstorms that cap the maximum. Guangzhou’s August weather is often described as hot, humid and rainy, with tropical monsoon influences and occasional typhoon risk, so a last-minute shower can matter as much as the morning baseline.[2][17][18][19] If you are running conditional orders or a bot, the cleanest approach is to watch the station-level high rather than citywide forecasts, then update sizing only after the afternoon peak is locked in and before the next day’s first datapoint is published.[8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.