Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field on 28 June 2026, a date historically prone to extreme heat in North Texas. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any specific range, suggesting the market has not yet priced in the likelihood of a record-breaking day or a standard summer high. This flat pricing is unusual for a weather event where historical data shows consistent volatility, often swinging between 96°F and 100°F in late June.

Historical precedents frame how to interpret this 0% probability. The all-time high for Dallas on 28 June is 110°F, recorded in 1980, while recent June forecasts for 2026 predict daily highs ranging from 96°F to 100°F with overnight lows between 77°F and 83°F[3]. Recent weather patterns show variable highs from 75°F to 89°F, with 96°F recorded on 27 June and 97°F forecast for 28 June[1]. A trader approaching this programmatically would script a bot to monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates, comparing live data against the 1980 record to trigger conditional orders if temperatures breach 105°F.

Key catalysts include the National Weather Service’s hourly observations and any sudden shifts in atmospheric pressure or wind patterns that could elevate temperatures beyond the forecasted 97°F[2]. Traders should watch for announcements regarding heat advisories or changes in local wind direction, as southerly winds can push temperatures higher. Recent reports indicate DFW experienced nine 100-degree days in May, suggesting a trend of elevated heat that could persist into June[5]. A power-user would set up automated alerts for Wunderground’s specific station data, ensuring they capture the exact peak temperature before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 28 June.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.