Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field Station will record a single daily high temperature on 13 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. That reading—captured across all daylight hours and reported via Wunderground's historical database—determines which temperature band this market resolves into. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, giving traders a narrow window after the local observation period ends to confirm the final figure before resolution locks.

July temperatures in Dallas historically cluster between 92–98°F, with extreme heat occasionally pushing into the low 100s. The 30-year average high for mid-July sits around 95°F; the record high for any July day in Dallas stands at 103°F (set in 1954). Current crowd probability at 0% suggests traders expect the outcome to fall outside the highest available temperature band, or that insufficient liquidity exists to price meaningful conviction. Comparable weather markets on Kalshi show similar low probabilities for extreme-tail outcomes in established heat seasons, reflecting both historical distribution and the difficulty of forecasting precise daily maxima months in advance.

Traders monitoring this market should track the National Weather Service Dallas/Fort Worth forecast as July 2026 approaches, particularly any heat advisories or excessive heat warnings issued in the week prior. Upper-atmosphere patterns—ridge positioning, moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico, and jet-stream behaviour—drive Dallas summer extremes. Programmatic traders can automate Wunderground scraping to capture historical volatility patterns for mid-July and build conditional orders that trigger once official forecasts narrow the range, though the settlement source's single-point-in-time nature limits arbitrage opportunities versus real-time weather APIs.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.