Highest temperature in Dallas on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field is the relevant reference point here, so the practical question is whether the station’s 6 August 2026 daily observations ever printed a value in the 100s before the next day’s first datapoint locked the record. In similar Dallas summer set-ups, the market tends to cluster around the forecast bin rather than the absolute hourly peak, because settlement keys off the highest value in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than the summary high/low line. On the live market, the crowd had already pushed the contract to 0% YES, so the useful read is that traders have effectively treated the outcome as settled, not that temperatures were low in a climatological sense.[4][13]

For historical framing, Dallas frequently reaches the upper 90s or low 100s in August, and the National Weather Service’s local climate pages show that 100°F-plus days are common enough to matter in pricing models, even if the exact threshold varies by station and boundary conditions.[7][8] Recent Dallas forecasts cited by major outlets pointed to an afternoon high around 101°F with persistent summer heat, which is precisely the sort of forecast signal that would have supported a 100–101°F bin before the event date.[1][9] For a power-user running a programme against this market, the edge is in monitoring the station feed itself: ingest Weather Underground’s historical page, watch the first observation for 7 August, and compare the final Daily Observations maximum against the contract bins rather than any headline summary figure.[3][13]

Catalysts that matter are straightforward: the forecast update cycle, any late-day convective cooling, and whether the station posts a revised observation before the first 7 August datapoint appears, because that is the cut-off for accepted revisions in the market rules.[1][4] Dallas weather briefing coverage for 6 August emphasised continued heat and a forecast near 101°F, so traders would have watched for any unexpected cloud cover, thunderstorm outflow, or weaker-than-expected southerly flow that could shift the high down by a degree or two.[9] In practice, a rules-aware bot would poll the resolution source, flag the final Daily Observations maximum, and ignore the simpler day-high summary if the two ever diverge.[3][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.