Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Chongqing is entering its peak hot season, with June 26 falling squarely within the 2.7-month window from late June to early September where daily highs routinely exceed 30°C[1]. The city’s reputation as one of China’s hottest urban centres is backed by 149 recorded days above 40°C since 1951, including a historic peak of 43.2°C in August 2022[4][8]. Given this baseline, a 0% YES probability for any temperature range below 30°C appears misaligned with historical norms, unless the market specifically targets an unusually low threshold that contradicts typical June conditions.

A power-user approaching this programmatically would first query Wunderground’s historical API for ZUCK on June 26 across multiple years to establish a distribution, then overlay real-time forecasts from PredictWind for June 2026 to detect anomalies like unexpected cloud cover or monsoon rain[2]. Key catalysts include the subtropical high-pressure ridge currently pushing over the Sichuan Basin, which has driven recent peaks toward 31–32°C in similar June dates[3]. Traders should monitor the National Meteorological Centre’s hourly updates for sudden shifts in wind direction or precipitation, as these dependencies can rapidly alter the day’s maximum temperature. No recent news announcements suggest a cooling event, reinforcing the likelihood of high temperatures consistent with the city’s climatic profile.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.