Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at hand is the peak temperature recorded on 2 July 2026 at Chongqing’s Jiangbei International Airport, a metric that will determine the resolution of a prediction market currently implying zero probability for a specific outcome. Historically, Chongqing in July is one of China’s hottest cities, with daytime highs routinely reaching 32–37°C and occasional spikes above 39°C, as noted in long-term climate records and recent heatwave reports[1][3]. While the current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside a particular range, this figure must be weighed against decades of data showing July as the hottest month, with average highs near 33°C and frequent extremes well above 30°C[1][2].

Traders evaluating this market programmatically should monitor real-time weather feeds from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and cross-reference with national climate advisories for sudden shifts such as cold fronts or heavy rain, which have recently caused 18°C temperature plunges in the region[3][8]. A key catalyst is the presence of monsoon activity or cold front intrusions, which can abruptly suppress peak temperatures despite the season’s typical intensity. Recent news confirms that Chongqing has experienced record-breaking heat followed by torrential rain, underscoring the volatility traders must account for when building automated strategies[8]. For power-users, conditional orders tied to Wunderground’s hourly updates and Reuters’ sustainability alerts offer a robust framework for dynamic position management[3][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.