Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience peak summer heat on 25 July 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The city sits in the Sichuan Basin, a geography that traps warm air and produces consistently elevated summer temperatures. Historical July data from Wunderground shows Chengdu regularly records daily highs between 28–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or systematically underweighting the likelihood of specific temperature thresholds—a common pattern in weather markets with granular outcome ranges where base rates favour middle-band outcomes over extremes.

Programmatic traders monitoring this market should establish automated feeds from Wunderground's historical API to calibrate seasonal patterns and recent anomalies. Chengdu's monsoon season (May–September) introduces variability; the East Asian summer monsoon intensity in early July 2026 will be a material dependency. China's meteorological bureau publishes 10-day forecasts roughly 8–10 days ahead, providing a checkpoint for recalibrating probabilities as the settlement date approaches. Real-time atmospheric pressure and humidity readings from regional stations feed into convective activity forecasts, which can suppress or amplify daily highs by several degrees. Traders should flag any unusual heat dome patterns developing across central China in the weeks preceding late July, as these typically correlate with sustained high-temperature clusters across the Sichuan region.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.