Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius temperature recorded at Cape Town International Airport on 13 July 2026, with settlement based on Wunderground data for the FACT station. Historically, July is the coldest month at this location, where average highs sit near 17°C (63°F) and lows drop to 4°C (46°F)[2]. Current forecasts for today indicate a maximum of 16°C with fair conditions, aligning with the seasonal norm where daily highs typically range between 12°C and 18°C[4][7]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome likely reflects a specific binary threshold in the user’s view that is incompatible with these winter temperatures, as the frontrunner outcomes in the broader market are 17°C at 34% and 18°C at 33%[1].

Programmatically, a trader would script a routine to poll the Wunderground daily history endpoint for the FACT station at the settlement timestamp, parsing the `temp_max` field in Celsius to resolve the range. Key dependencies include the reliability of the Wunderground archive, which aggregates data from the station’s sensors, and the absence of transmission gaps that could force a fallback to secondary sources. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled for this date, traders should monitor real-time updates from Yr.no or AccuWeather for any anomalous cold snaps or heat spikes that might shift the peak outside the expected 12–18°C band[4][5]. The market’s resolution is strictly mechanical, requiring no subjective interpretation once the data is fetched.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.