Highest temperature in Busan on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Gimhae International Airport's weather station will record the daily maximum temperature on 28 July 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical data archive for that specific date and location. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or insufficient trader participation; neither interpretation should be taken as predictive signal without examining the underlying temperature distribution being priced.

Busan's July climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 28°C to 32°C during the month. The 2023 and 2024 July records show occasional spikes above 33°C during heat waves, but sustained temperatures above 35°C remain rare for this coastal city. Traders should cross-reference the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and compare Gimhae's readings against inland stations, as proximity to the Korea Strait moderates extremes relative to Seoul or Daegu.

For programmatic approaches, the settlement mechanism requires direct API polling of Wunderground's historical pages rather than relying on real-time feeds, since the resolution window closes at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date. Conditional order logic should account for timezone conversion—Busan operates on Korea Standard Time (UTC+9)—and the distinction between daily maximum and instantaneous readings. Traders building automated systems should verify Wunderground's data refresh cadence and establish fallback verification against KMA official records, as discrepancies between sources have occasionally delayed resolution on weather markets.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Busan on July 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.