Highest temperature in Beijing on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak heat recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 4 July 2026, where temperatures must be measured in degrees Celsius to determine the market outcome. Historical data frames the current 0% probability for a lower range as a stark mispricing, given that July is Beijing’s hottest month. Average daily highs in July hover around 31°C (88°F), rarely dipping below 26°C but frequently exceeding 36°C, with the all-time record of 42.1°C struck on 5 July 2010[8]. Even in 2023, the city reached 40°C during the month, and a June 2023 spike hit 41.1°C, proving that extreme heatwaves are a recurring summer feature rather than an anomaly[1][4].

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for the airport station, setting conditional orders to trigger if temperatures breach 35°C before noon. The primary catalyst is the arrival of the current heatwave system, which has already pushed northern China into blistering conditions, as authorities recently urged residents to limit outdoor exposure due to record highs[5]. Traders should watch the National Climate Center’s daily updates on humidity and pressure, as high moisture levels can amplify thermal stress, a factor highlighted in recent national record-breaking July temperatures[9]. With thin volume and thin data, the market’s 37.5% pricing for 35°C appears conservative against the historical tendency for July peaks to exceed this threshold[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.