Highest temperature in Beijing on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's peak temperature on 18 July 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and reported via Weather Underground's historical records. July is consistently Beijing's warmest month, with daily highs typically ranging between 29–32°C, though extreme heat events can push readings above 35°C. The settlement mechanism relies on a single, verifiable data point from a fixed weather station, making this market amenable to automated resolution and conditional order logic once the observation window closes.

Historical July temperatures in Beijing show clustering around 30–31°C as the modal outcome, with excursions above 34°C occurring roughly once every three to five years during sustained heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting updated seasonal forecasts or treating the market as illiquid. Comparable markets on Beijing summer temperatures have typically seen probability mass concentrate in the 30–33°C bands, with tail outcomes (sub-28°C or above-36°C) receiving minimal backing. Reviewing Weather Underground's five-year archive for mid-July readings provides a baseline for calibration.

Traders monitoring this market should track China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks, released quarterly, which flag heat wave risk for North China Plain regions. Real-time catalysts include the East Asian summer monsoon pattern, which influences moisture and cloud cover in early July, and any declared heat alerts from Beijing authorities—these typically precede temperature spikes by 48–72 hours. Programmatic approaches can ingest CMA data feeds and cross-reference them against historical volatility clustering to inform position sizing ahead of the settlement window.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 18? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.