Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature on 13 July 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. The crowd-implied 0% YES probability suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside the offered range, likely because July in Beijing routinely exceeds 35°C, with historical peaks reaching 41.9°C on 24 July 1999 and 42.1°C on 5 July 2010[3][8][9]. In 2023, July highs hit 40°C amid high humidity, reinforcing that sub-32°C outcomes are exceptionally rare for mid-July in the capital[1].

Programmatically, a trader would script a daily pull from Wunderground’s ZBAA history endpoint at 12:00Z on 14 July to capture the official resolution value, then cross-reference it against the market’s range brackets. Key catalysts include the China Meteorological Administration’s daily heatwave bulletins and any sudden shifts in the East Asian monsoon, which can suppress temperatures if moisture influx intensifies cloud cover. Recent Reuters reporting noted Beijing’s vulnerability to returning heatwaves, with June 2023 seeing 41.1°C, a pattern that typically persists into July[2]. For conditional-order bots, the dependency is the 12:00Z settlement timestamp and the Wunderground data feed’s latency; any gap between local observation and online publication could trigger false early signals if not buffered.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.