Highest temperature in Beijing on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 10 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 96% chance that the reading will exceed 29°C. Historical data frames this probability as robust; July is Beijing’s hottest month, where daily highs typically cluster around 31°C (88°F), rarely dipping below 26°C (78°F)[3]. Specific records for 10 July show an average of 31°C, with a historical peak of 37°C in 1959, while the broader month has seen extremes up to 40°C in 2023 and an all-time record of 41.9°C in 1999[1][2][4]. Given that recent years have witnessed record-breaking heatwaves across northern China, the 96% implied probability aligns closely with the region’s established climatic baseline for mid-July.

For a power-user approaching this programmatically, the primary catalyst is the absence of significant cooling weather systems, as current forecasts indicate continued high humidity and stable atmospheric pressure typical of the rainy season[1]. Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in wind patterns or precipitation that could lower the peak temperature below the threshold[8]. Recent reports confirm China experienced its hottest month on record in July 2024, reinforcing the trend of escalating summer temperatures that supports the current market stance[10]. A conditional order strategy would involve setting a sell trigger only if Wunderground data shows a temperature drop below 29°C before the noon settlement window, though the historical consistency of 31°C averages makes such a move statistically improbable.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.