Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by that primary source rather than the Day High & Low summary. The market bins outcomes into temperature ranges in Celsius, and the 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent or confident the event will not occur as specified—an unusual signal worth interrogating against historical precedent.

August temperatures at Beijing Capital Airport typically peak between 28–35°C, with the station's records showing consistent highs in the low 30s during mid-August across most years. The 2023 and 2024 summers saw August 12 highs of 31°C and 29°C respectively, establishing a baseline range. Traders automating queries against Weather Underground's API should note the distinction between the Daily Observations granular dataset and the summary figures; programmatic resolution checkers will need to target the correct table to avoid false settlement signals. Historical volatility around this date is modest, meaning extreme outliers (sub-25°C or above 37°C) are rare enough to compress into lower-probability buckets.

Monitoring China Meteorological Administration forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific becomes material in late July 2026, as monsoon systems can suppress temperatures significantly. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 12 August, creating a hard deadline for data availability; traders building conditional orders should account for potential delays in Weather Underground's station updates, which occasionally lag by several hours during high-traffic weather events.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.