Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 11 August 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the summary high-low figures. This distinction matters operationally: the granular observation log often captures intraday peaks that summary panels smooth or omit, making it essential for automated resolution verification. A trader building conditional orders or bot logic around this market needs to query the raw data feed directly rather than relying on displayed summaries.

August in Beijing typically peaks between 32–35°C, with occasional excursions above 36°C during heat waves. Historical August records at the airport station show a maximum of 41.9°C (2010), though most years cluster in the 33–37°C band. The current 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be calibrated to a narrow upper range; comparing against 20-year August distributions at the same station provides the baseline for assessing whether the settlement bracket is realistic or reflects sparse liquidity rather than genuine weather expectation.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts and any issued heat warnings in late July and early August 2026, which typically signal whether conditions will trend toward seasonal norms or anomalies. The Weather Underground data feed itself requires direct inspection—automated systems should verify the station identifier (Beijing Capital International Airport) and confirm Daily Observations table access before settlement, as API changes or station maintenance can affect data availability. Lead time to August 2026 allows for systematic backtesting against historical station records to validate your resolution methodology.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.