Highest temperature in Ankara on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event underpinning this market is the daily peak temperature recorded at Esenboğa International Airport on 2 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific Celsius range containing that maximum. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any outcome below the frontrunner, reflecting a tight consensus that the day will not be unusually cool. Historical data frames this probability sharply: July is Ankara’s hottest month, with average highs near 29.9°C and frequent peaks reaching 33–34°C, as seen in recent Polymarket resolutions where 34°C commanded 99% implied probability[1]. The 0% probability for lower ranges aligns with the typical thermal clustering of early July, where temperatures rarely dip below 30°C unless significant cloud cover or precipitation intervenes, neither of which is forecast for today[4].

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically would monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for the Esenboğa station, cross-referencing with BBC Weather’s current 34°C reading and AccuWeather’s July forecast range of 81–94°F (27–34°C)[4][5]. The primary catalysts are not announcements but atmospheric dependencies: sustained solar radiation, low humidity, and minimal wind speed, all of which currently favour high temperatures. Recent forecasts confirm sunny intervals with rising pressure and north-easterly winds at 7 km/h, conditions that typically drive temperatures toward the 33–34°C cluster[4]. Traders should watch for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation, as these are the only plausible deviations from the current 99% probability assigned to 34°C[1]. No news announcements are relevant; the market is purely weather-driven, requiring automated scripts to ingest hourly Wunderground data and trigger conditional orders if the observed maximum diverges from the 34°C expectation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.