Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam's daily maximum temperature on 17 August 2026 will be recorded at Schiphol Airport weather station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the granular, minute-by-minute dataset rather than the rounded Day High & Low summary. This distinction matters for programmatic resolution: traders building conditional order logic or automated settlement checkers must query the correct WU endpoint to avoid false settlement signals. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to attract contrarian positions.

August temperatures at Schiphol historically cluster between 20–24°C, with extremes ranging from 12°C (2015) to 30°C (2006). The 1991–2020 climatological normal for mid-August maxima sits near 22°C. Comparable European airport stations show similar August variance: Berlin-Tegel averages 23–24°C, whilst cooler Atlantic-influenced years can suppress readings by 3–5°C. Historical frequency distributions suggest the crowd's current positioning reflects either a narrow expected range or incomplete calibration against multi-decade records.

Traders should monitor European summer weather pattern forecasts from mid-July onward, particularly Atlantic ridge positioning and any heat dome developments tracked by Météo-France or KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute). KNMI publishes seasonal outlooks in June; any revision toward warmer-than-normal August conditions would shift probability mass toward higher temperature brackets. Real-time tracking requires setting up automated pulls from WU's API during the settlement window itself, since final readings lock only after 12:00 UTC on the 17th.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi Fees trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.