Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market hinges on whether 2026’s annual Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index will place it among the top three hottest years ever recorded, a threshold the crowd currently prices at 34% probability. Historical precedence suggests this is a tight call: 2024 set the all-time high, while 2025 settled as the third warmest year since 1850, with most agencies confirming its rank despite minor discrepancies from NASA and DCENT[2][4]. Berkeley Earth’s latest modelling indicates 2026 will likely mirror 2025’s thermal output, projecting a 51% chance it lands in fourth place, with only a 10% probability of claiming first place and a 21% chance of second[2]. This distribution aligns with the WMO’s forecast that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024, though it does not guarantee 2026 itself will be that year[1].

Programmatically, traders should monitor monthly NOAA and EU Climate Service releases for anomalies that deviate from the 1.44°C baseline established in 2025, as these updates directly feed into rank-calculating bots and conditional order scripts[2][3]. The critical catalyst is the June and July 2026 global surface temperature reports, which will determine if the year’s running average exceeds the 2024 threshold of approximately 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels[1][9]. Recent data shows May 2026 was the second-highest month in the 177-year record, but January was only the fifth-warmest, creating volatility in early-year aggregates that copy-trading algorithms must account for[3][9]. Traders running automated strategies should weight the WMO’s 86% confidence that a record-breaking year occurs in the 2026–2030 window against Berkeley Earth’s specific 10% first-place probability for 2026 alone[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.