Who will be in the Burnham cabinet?

Platform comparison

Market context

Andy Burnham has already confirmed his full Cabinet list, appointing John Healey as Chancellor, Ed Miliband as Foreign Secretary, and Wes Streeting as Defence Secretary, with all key positions filled within the first week of his Prime Ministerial appointment [1][2]. The 100% crowd-implied probability reflects this completed real-world event: the cabinet is no longer hypothetical but officially constituted, meaning any market on a specific individual’s inclusion resolves based on their confirmed role in this published roster [3].

Historically, UK Cabinet formations following a new PM’s appointment settle within 72 hours, with probabilities shifting from speculative to deterministic once the Monarch’s formal confirmation is published [2]. Comparable cases like Starmer’s 2024 cabinet show that once the list is announced by Downing Street, no further appointments occur outside the initial window, making the 100% price a factual reflection of settled reality rather than a forecast [1].

Traders should monitor the official Cabinet Office register for any post-appointment changes, though the settlement window ending 2026-12-31 allows for rare reshuffles [2]. Programmatically, this market is a binary confirmation check: scrape the published list from the Standard or New Statesman live blog, match the individual’s name to the role, and execute a conditional order only if the name appears [1][3]. No further catalysts exist; the event has occurred, and the only dependency is verifying the individual’s name against the authoritative source [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Who will be in the Burnham cabinet? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Fees, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi Fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.